Daily Market Outlook, March 19, 2026
Daily Market Outlook, March 19, 2026
Patrick Munnelly, Partner: Market Strategy, Tickmill Group
Munnelly’s Macro Minute…
Global markets took another hit as escalating tensions in the Middle East rattled investors, sending oil prices soaring and stoking fears of renewed inflationary pressures. The selloff primarily affected Asia's markets, resulting in a 2.8% decline in the regional benchmark. Japan’s Nikkei 225 plunged over 3.5%, as traders grew increasingly uneasy about the Yen’s potential slide past the critical 160-per-Dollar mark. Meanwhile, European futures weren’t spared, with Euro Stoxx 50 contracts diving close to 2%, and U.S. futures extended their losses after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 dropped 1.4% on Wednesday. Brent crude surged past $112 per barrel amid heightened concerns over attacks targeting key energy infrastructure in the Middle East. Strikes by Iran and Israel disrupted operations at vital facilities, including Qatar’s massive liquefied natural gas export plant, raising alarms about the broader implications for global energy markets. The spike in oil prices has already put central banks on edge, complicating their efforts to navigate inflation risks. On Thursday, the Bank of Japan opted to hold interest rates steady, mirroring the Federal Reserve’s decision a day earlier, as policymakers grappled with the uncertainty stemming from the intensifying conflict. Elsewhere in currency markets, the Philippine Peso breached the psychologically significant 60-per-Dollar level, as climbing oil costs cast a shadow over the nation’s economic outlook. The U.S. Dollar index held firm after gaining 0.5% on Wednesday, while gold prices stabilised following a sharp 4% drop in the prior session. As geopolitical tensions continue to escalate, markets around the globe are bracing for further turbulence, with energy prices and inflation concerns likely to dominate investor sentiment in the days ahead.
Another sign of US isolationism could be evident in the March FOMC meeting. While Powell emphasised uncertainty with the phrase “nobody knows,” the updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) suggested the Fed viewed the current conflict as a manageable shock for the robust US economy. Inflation projections rose due to energy costs, but growth forecasts improved, and labor market expectations remained steady. Powell downplayed weak February payrolls by highlighting strong January data and focused on supply-side dynamics. He also stressed the US economy's resilience to shocks, citing energy independence and productivity gains. Notably, the SEP raised the long-term GDP growth assumption slightly. The 11-1 vote (with Miran favouring a smaller hike) reflected a cautious “wait and see” approach, with the single rate cut for this year unchanged. Whether this confidence holds in six weeks remains uncertain.
The latest UK ONS labour market report presents mixed signals. Employment rose by 84k in January (3m/3m), with the unemployment rate stable at 5.2%. Redundancies decreased, and HMRC payrolls grew by 20k in February, defying expectations of a decline. However, the employment increase was driven by a shift from full-time (-61k) to part-time (+145k), resulting in a slight drop in total hours worked, signalling weak output. Private sector pay growth slowed to 3.3% (3m/y) in January, falling below Q1 projections. While the data suggests softer pay pressures and modest activity, the energy price crisis may overshadow these developments in the short term.
Overnight Headlines
BoE Set To Hold Rates As Geopolitical Risks Intensify
ECB Set To Hold Rates Again As Fog Of War Clouds Outlook
SNB Likely To Hold Rates As War Fuels Inflation Concerns
Trump: No More Energy Strikes, But Supported Attack On South Pars
US Explored Linking Strait Of Hormuz Naval Escorts To Govt Insurance
Foreign Holdings Of US Treasuries Rise In January, Led By Japan
Powell Says War Too Soon To Judge As Inflation Keeps Fed On Hold
RBA Warns Of Global Financial Stability Risks As Iran War Rages
BoJ Stands Pat As Geopolitical Uncertainties Raise Hurdle For Early Hike
Japan’s FinMin Says Ready To Take Action On Forex At Any Time
Aussie Holds Sizeable Gains After Mixed Aussie Jobs Data
Micron Sales Nearly Triple Amid Tight Memory Supply
HSBC Mulls Deep Job Cuts From Multiyear AI-Fuelled Overhaul
NTT Global Data Centers Plans To Double Capacity In AI Boom
Tariff Refund Lawsuits Surge Amid Uncertainty About US Plans
FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut
(1BLN+ represents larger expiries and is more magnetic when trading within the daily ATR.)
EUR/USD: 1.1425 (€693m), 1.1450 (€781m), 1.1500 (€1.7bn), 1.1530 (€924m), 1.1550 (€800m), 1.1560 (€567m), 1.1575 (€540m), 1.1580 (€884m), 1.1590 (€1.2bn), 1.1650 (€550m)
USD/JPY: 159.00 ($795m)
GBP/USD: 1.3200 (£681m), 1.3350 (£847m), 1.3400 (£520m)
AUD/USD: 0.6950 (A$2.0bn), 0.7125 (A$500m)
NZD/USD: 0.5940 (NZ$847m)
CFTC Positions as of March 13, 2026:
Speculators have reduced their net short position in CBOT US 5-year Treasury futures by 173,130 contracts, bringing it down to 1,917,664 contracts. Similarly, the net short position in CBOT US 10-year Treasury futures has been decreased by 119,624 contracts, now totaling 534,883. The net short position for CBOT US 2-year Treasury futures has seen a minor reduction of 305 contracts, reaching 1,338,236. In contrast, speculators have increased their net short position in CBOT US UltraBond Treasury futures by 34,408 contracts to a total of 290,102. There has also been a rise in the net long position for CBOT US Treasury bonds futures by 21,772 contracts, bringing it to 42,037.
The Swiss franc has a net short position of -41,092 contracts, while the British pound shows a net short position of -84,197 contracts. On the other hand, the Euro has a net long position of 105,144 contracts, and the Japanese yen records a net short position of -41,387 contracts.The net long position for Bitcoin stands at 1,302 contracts
Technical & Trade Views
SP500
Daily VWAP Bearish
Weekly VWAP Bearish
Above 6800 Target 6920
Below 6700 Target 6500
EURUSD
Daily VWAP Bearish
Weekly VWAP Bearish
Above 1.1675 Target 1.1730
Below 1.15 Target 1.1350
GBPUSD
Daily VWAP Bearish
Weekly VWAP Bearish
Above 1.3450 Target 1.3550
Below 1.3400 Target 1.3150
USDJPY
Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Above 159 Target 161.50
Below 155 Target 152
XAUUSD
Daily VWAP Bearish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Above 5150 Target 5325
Below 4950 Target 4250
BTCUSD
Daily VWAP Bearish
Weekly VWAP Bearish
Above 79.5k Target 81.5k
Below 78k Target 53k
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!